Diplomatic breakthrough or military action?: Trump's choice on Iran: ANALYSIS 

U.S. officials signaled Tuesday that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical

As President Donald Trump huddled with his top advisers in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, U.S. officials signaled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible -- or if the president might resort to military action instead.

Trump significantly ramped up his rhetoric against the Iranian regime ahead of the meeting, asserting that the U.S. knew exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was hiding.

"He is an easy target, but is safe there -- We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin," Trump wrote on social media.

"We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran," he claimed in another post.

President Donald Trump departs after a family photo during the Group of Seven Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 16, 2025.

Suzanne Plunkett/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

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A last chance for diplomacy?

Despite the apparent saber rattling, U.S. negotiators on Tuesday continued to assess that Iran is in a weak position and could be forced to come back to the negotiating table and to ultimately accept a deal that would require it abandon all nuclear enrichment, according to multiple officials involved in the diplomatic process.

As Iran and Israel trade blows, the Iranian regime has signaled a willingness to resume discussions with the U.S., the officials said, adding that the Trump administration has been looking for more concrete commitments before backing off the war path.

If Iran returns to the negotiations and agrees to drop its uranium enrichment, U.S. officials believe a high-level meeting led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and potentially Vice President JD Vance would happen as soon as this week.

But that scenario likely requires Iran to move quickly. The president has already acknowledged his patience with the situation in the Middle East is wearing thin.

Sources familiar with the president's mindset said he has grown frustrated by a destabilized Iran's inability to provide the administration with immediate answers and also appears highly disinclined to allow for a situation to unfold where it appears as if Tehran has successfully called his military bluff.

Airmen look at a GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, May 2, 2023.

U.S. Air Force via AP, FILE

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A 'defensive' US posture -- for now

The U.S. military is already sending assets toward the region, including sending additional aircraft and a second aircraft carrier and its strike group to the Middle East -- all moves that are defensive in nature, officials say.

"We're strong, we're prepared, we're defensive and present," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said of the U.S. posture in the Middle East during an interview with Fox News on Monday.

But while the repositioning of assets is intended to protect the 40,000 estimated American troops stationed in the region, it also leaves options open for the Trump administration if it decides to directly assist with Israel's ongoing offensive operation against Iran.

"It's our role to keep options on the table, but our posture is still defensive," said a U.S. official.

A B-2 Spirit returns to Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, from a deployment to Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory, May 9, 2025.

Senior Airman Devan Halstead/509th Bomb Wing/US Air Force

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A major question is whether the U.S. will deploy its B-2 stealth bombers. The heavy strategic bombers are capable of carrying the 30,000 pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-buster bombs, which might be able to destroy Iran's deep underground nuclear facility at the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant.

Currently, the military's fleet of 19 B-2 bombers is located at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Six of the aircraft were previously deployed to the airbase on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean -- much closer to Iran. However, they were replaced by B-52 long-range bombers which are not capable of carrying the bunker-buster bombs needed to destroy the Fordo site.

Already, roughly a dozen U.S. Navy vessels are in Bahrain's territorial waters away from post, according to a Defense Department official, who said that the ships do not have any official tasking. Among them are a littoral combat ship, four minesweepers, and six water patrol craft, the official said.

The Navy also has two destroyers in the Red Sea, an aircraft carrier, and three other surface ships in the Arabian Sea. Two more American destroyers are in the eastern Mediterranean Sea -- each equipped with missile defense systems capable of shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles.

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A shifting US agenda

Signs the Trump administration could be inching toward military action could include canceling the president's plans to travel to the Netherlands for a NATO summit next week.

At a press briefing on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the summit was still "on the books" -- but said the situation could change depending on the dynamic with Iran.

"This is something that is moving -- as things tend to -- very rapidly. So, I would say that anything is possible," she said.

Already, the president made an early exit from the G7 summit in Canada, opting to cut his time there short on Monday in order to monitor the situation in the Middle East fr

om the White House.

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